........I dunno.........

Two runners in the early races at Carlisle on Monday.....

Just 5 runners from our yard since the turn of the year and in a similar vein to reports emanating from fellow trainers in the North, it's hard to gauge just how race fit our runners will be across the 8-race Carlisle card on heavy (soft in places) going which takes place on Monday afternoon.
The gallop has been frost free for over a week now, so tomorrow's horses - all of whom would have been at a reasonable level of fitness pre-freeze - have had a couple of work gallops. But, especially at this time of the year, hard race fitness does count for a lot.............so take care with those bets.

The inner (a bit tighter) hurdles track is in use.

A couple of sisters run in the opening races for yard with the 6 year old daughter of Well Disguised, Our Elsie, taking the field for her second outing over hurdles. In early December, she was 7th over 2m 4f at Kelso on debut and drops back to 2m 1f here.
McCain's progressive Word Has It looks to be the one to beat while The Good Doctor's ex-Irish I'm So Busy will have to show a bit more than of late on these shores to win this. There are a couple of quite interesting runners apart from that none more so than Jimmy Moffat hurdling debutant Alqamar. It'll be fascinating to see what this 90+ rated flat performer by Dubawi makes of the testing ground.....and 10 flights of hurdles. First outing for over 2 years but does stay well though.
The other one in the mix, it would appear, is the quietly progressive Kayf Tara mare Miss Tara Moss but she may just be one for the places at this stage of her career.

We'd look for Our Elsie (race time 12.30), with Callum Bewley in the saddle, to jump round safely and add to her racecourse experience.
Best of luck to Steve and Barry (Our Elsie is pictured a couple of photos down the page).

Next up for the yard at 2.10 is Our Elsie's elder half-sister Eternally Yours, who runs in the Class 3 2m 3f handicap hurdle.
There is no doubting the strong form of Eternally Yours' seasonal debut at Aintree in early December when caught on the line by Kateson. That was a Class 2 event over 2m 4f and you'd have to think a repeat of that form would give her an outstanding chance here.
However, and here's the rub, that race was over 2 months ago and the intervening period has seen race after race called off for the mare. So the gap has arisen through not for the want of trying, and we've had her race fit only to then let her down several times. 'They're not machines....'

Six opponents. Minella Trump reverts to hurdling after a none too successful spell chasing, but has the hurdling  form to win this. Teescomponents Lad is a useful hurdler who is well suited to heavy and is the most feared, while Overcourt's sole appearance in the last 12 months was in a novice chase in October. He looked a useful type though when completing a double at the end of last season and if coping with the step up in grade, could be well handicapped.

As with our remaining runners, Blair Campbell takes off the 3lb here.

Eternally Yours

....and later on

We've runners in each of the last two races that complete Carlisle's Monday card.

The 2m 1f Class 5 handicap hurdle is split into two divisions and Honda Fifty takes his chance in the second of those at 3.40.
To be honest, his last run at Musselburgh a couple of weeks ago was a bit underwhelming so although we think highly of the horse, he does have a wee bit to find in this race. That Musselburgh run, his first in a handicap, was over 2 miles but there the comparisons with this race end as Carlisle does present an entirely different test, being more stamina laden than that East Lothian track. Even on the inner ring.....

Nefyn Bay is inconsistent but has the ability to win this on a going day, while a couple of ex-Irish geldings (Black Label and Bowser) have shown their best form on a sound surface. Another couple (She Got Fast and Forters'island) have come to life in recent AW bumper races, displaying ability which would be enough to win here but that is a very tenuous line to pursue.

The outsider Lucou is one to note for a market move.

 
Honda Fifty (nearside) and Our Elsie pictured sandwiched between a couple of stable mates

Stolen Money makes his handicap debut in the 3m 1f Class 5 handicap hurdle at 4.10

Overnight odds of 5's the field tell it's own tale and this promises to be a competitive event. There are several runners here with a similar profile to our lad. Jumping can be novicey on occasion, and there's a tendency to get outpaced at some point in a race.....

Sergeant Brody is back at a more suitable trip than of late and could well put his experience to good use. Jack Tudor's sole ride on the day.
Bitasweetsymphony has been running with promise at a low level and could be there or thereabouts again, while wind surgery could help The Black Squirrel get competitive once more.

Best of luck to 'Mouse' Young and his Buyers Club cohorts.

Stolen Money (Garry)